Your Polymarket Bot Found a 20-Point Edge. Why Might It Still Lose Money?
python
dev.to
Your model estimates that a YES outcome has a 70% chance of winning. Polymarket is offering shares at $0.50. Your bot calculates the difference, identifies a 20-percentage-point edge and prepares to buy. On paper, this looks like an excellent opportunity. But what if the model is wrong? What if the price changes before the order fills? What if fees and execution costs consume part of the advantage? The bot may have found a profitable-looking trade without finding a profitable one. This is